Everything you need to get started with Portfolio Signals and understand your backtest results.
Browse strategies by risk level or indicator type. Not sure? Start with 'Bullish Engulfing' — it's one of the most recognized candlestick patterns.
Select a currency pair and date range, then click 'Run Backtest'. Default settings work well for a first test.
You'll see performance metrics, an equity curve, and walk-forward analysis windows. Hover any metric for an explanation.
After running a backtest, you'll see three main sections: an equity curve chart showing your strategy's value over time, a metrics summary with key performance numbers, and walk-forward analysis windows showing how the strategy performed across different time periods.
The equity curve shows gains and losses chronologically. A steadily rising curve is ideal. Large dips represent drawdowns — periods where the strategy lost value before recovering.
Walk-forward analysis splits the data into multiple windows to test if the strategy works consistently, not just in one specific period. Each window independently trains and tests the strategy, giving you confidence that results aren't just overfitting to historical data.
Annualized return divided by max drawdown. Measures return relative to worst-case loss. Higher is better.
A specific arrangement of one or more price bars (candlesticks) that traders use to predict future price movement. Examples include doji, engulfing, and hammer patterns.
A fixed dollar amount charged per trade by the broker.
What percentage of walk-forward windows were profitable. Higher is better — it means the strategy works across different time periods.
The process of estimating real-world trading costs (spreads, commissions, slippage, funding) and subtracting them from backtest results to get a more realistic picture.
Two currencies quoted against each other, such as EUR/USD. The first currency is the base and the second is the quote currency.
A chart showing the value of your portfolio over time. A rising curve means the strategy is making money; dips represent drawdowns.
Average dollar amount expected per trade. Positive means the strategy makes money on average.
The cost of holding a leveraged position overnight. Also called the swap rate or rollover rate.
The largest peak-to-trough decline during the test. Lower absolute values are better.
The probability that the observed returns occurred by chance.
Ratio of gross profits to gross losses.
A classification of how aggressive a trading strategy is. Low-risk strategies trade less frequently with tighter stops; high-risk strategies take larger positions with wider stops.
The difference between expected and actual execution price. In fast markets, your order may fill at a slightly worse price.
Like Sharpe ratio, but only penalizes downside volatility. Higher is better. More relevant for strategies that have asymmetric returns.
The cost of buying and selling a currency pair, measured in basis points (1 bps = 0.01%). This is the primary trading cost in forex.
A measure of whether the strategy's results are likely real or just due to random chance. A p-value below 0.05 is generally considered significant.
Measures how far the strategy's returns are from zero. Higher absolute values indicate stronger evidence that returns are real, not luck.
The final, unseen data used to evaluate the strategy. Results from this period are the most realistic measure of future performance.
The duration each candlestick represents on a chart. Common timeframes include 5-minute (5M), 1-hour (1H), and daily (1D).
The overall percentage gain or loss of the strategy over the test period.
The portion of historical data used to optimize or fit a strategy's parameters. The strategy 'learns' from this data.
Data used to check the strategy after training but before final testing. Helps prevent overfitting to the training data.
A method of testing a strategy by dividing historical data into multiple overlapping windows. Each window trains, validates, and tests the strategy independently to check if it works consistently.
Percentage of trades that were profitable.